Thailand saw moderate activity last year, with subdued private investment and manufacturing virtually stagnating for the second consecutive year. Moreover, the death of King Bhumibol Adulyadej in October cast a cloud on consumer sentiment, especially due to an official year-long mourning period. However, there is a silver lining as recent indicators suggest a slight uptick in activity in Q4: exports rebounded strongly in November and manufacturing growth rose at a multi-year high, lifting the subpar annual performance. The political state of affairs is unlikely to gain momentum anytime soon: a recent request from new King Vajiralongkorn to amend the military draft constitution is expected to delay the elections planned for 2017 to 2018. However, the changes requested are not pivotal: they only represent a slight shift of power from the King to the yet-to-be-elected government.
Thailand Economic Outlook
